Ha! I thought of that title because $BTC is almost precisely where it was last week at circa $33k. Yep, we are STILL in the range we have been in since mid May.
I’ve decided to make this issue a free issue again, as it has more of the kind of content I hope to add in every week. But this will be the last free newsletter for July, so if you want to keep up with my analysis please hit the subscribe button below, it costs pretty much the same as a takeaway coffee for a months worth of analysis
I’ve had an amazing first week back at trading, where I managed to gain 25% on my trading pot! Amazing.
On the 7th overnight though, I ran into lots of longs being stopped out and haven’t really traded since. And somehow, despite my success this week, if I am honest, I don’t feel as positive as I did when I wrote the newsletter last week.
On Thursday evening, Bitcoin plummeted from 34.5k to 32k in less than 12 hours. Just when we were beginning to start to feel comfortable or optimistic that we might break above the mid range. Alt coins obviously were affected more deeply, which is a stark reminder that although there has been opportunity this week; we should also be on our guard. You will have all seen the (legitimate) calls for Bitcoin at 20-26K and even lower. You don’t have to be a genius to know whet will happen to alts if we break down from this range. It certainly pulled me back down to earth to have to face that prospect again. It’s very easy to get carried away, and again, we haven’t broken the range either side yet so it has always been and still is very much on the cards.
Market review
As mentioned we saw some pretty nasty draw downs on Bitcoin and Altcoins’ on the 7th overnight (GMT) after a week where we had some nice gains on Defi coins like UNI, AAVE & GRT - In fact in a spot of good news, those coins are still up on the week, but overall most coins I follow are down or fairly neutral for the week.
Lets have a quick look at the 7 day % gains on some coins I hold, chart & follow at the time of writing:
AAVE: +25.5%
GRT: +23.2%
UNI: +14.3%
DOT: +1.2%
ADA: -0.5%
ETH: -0.7%
LINK: -1.5%
SOL: -2%
BTC : -2.1%
RUNE: -2.2%
Interesting to see one the worst performing coin, in at least my portfolio was BTC. This is interesting given the correction we saw on the 7th. Many alts, particularly Defi were making some nice gains earlier in the week, which means they have overall held up quite well even considering the correction.
I mentioned in my newsletter last week I felt alts were showing some strength, and many saw incredible gains. Some not so much but overall altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin presently. Bitcoin Dominance has been in sharp decline since January.
BTC dominance has recently shown some signs of reversal, with a higher high and higher low on the daily. It also bounced at 44.71, an area I had marked out as a potential bounce, which saw the much larger correction on alts on the 7th & 8th. Its now stuck between the 20 & 50 MA, so it may bounce around here like a ping pong ball for it. If it reclaims the 50 MA fully, we may have to switch our bias. Its hard to say ‘season’ when everything is in sharp decline, but you still want to be on the right side of the market, and try to be positioned in the best performing asset.
BTC analysis
Well, as mentioned not a huge amount has changed. We didn’t get that higher high I was after in last weeks newsletter, we made some progress but instead Bitcoin stalled at resistance at the top of the mid range (35.6K) and we are now back at my original buy box (white box) and stuck in the lower part of the range.
It seems we may even be ranging within a range here, and starting to form a tighter range between 32 and 36K. The fact that the price is being squeezed in this way, into a tighter range would indicate to me that a large move will come soon.
At the moment though, it’s quite difficult to find patterns, wedges, triangles, trendlines…. I’ve seen and tried them all here but to me it just looks like a lot of chop in an increasingly tightening range, and only a decisive move one way or the other will determine our next moves. You also risk drawing things to your bias when in my option there is no clear direction right now.
We could easily sweep the lows here again, especially now as we have made a lower high on the 4 hour and the structure has changed somewhat on the daily showing weakness.
30K is my invalidation point as I’ve mentioned with next stop down 26k. At the moment I have alerts either side of my “buy” box - break down and we see 30-31k again, break up and we can target 35k again. At the moment though it seems we are being supported by strong buying pressure at $32.2K and selling pressure at $35k.
We also have our MAs sat around mid range. Not helping matters and likely suppressing the price until they can be properly reclaimed. I am sure you want to give you the answers but I am afraid there isn’t anyone who can. We need to just wait, watch and react. I would long above 36k to range high, but in the meantime, not trading this.
I cannot stress enough that as we are STILL in and as long as we are still in this range it is fairly futile to assume a bearish or bullish outcome, since it could break either side. So I will remain neutral for now.
Altcoins
So my radar is pretty much on Defi. You may have heard of the ‘Defi summer’ - well that’s because Defi (Decentralized Finance) tends to have its own season around mid to high summer. You can see a list of all Defi coins and associated information here:
https://coinmarketcap.com/view/defi/
I have very fond memories of my holiday in France last year in the Loire valley, when Chainlink hit an ATH of $20.11 on the 16th August, with the climb starting around this time last year. $YFI also hit dizzying heights of $43k on the 12th September 2020 from around 8k at the beginning of August, not reclaiming that 43k until 2021. BAT, another of my old favorites, was around 0.25 in July 2020 and peaked at 0.44 on 21st August and again, did not reclaim that high until 2021. Chainlink, YFI and BAT are all old players in Defi, but we also have some exciting newcomers in the last 9-12 months
Coins like UNI, AAVE (AAVE actually was previously called LEND and was a crazy .80 last summer at its peak!), CAKE, SUSHI & GRT are all exciting projects that have had less than a year on mainstream exchanges. It will be interesting to see what happens to them this summer, since markets, including crypto tend to move in seasons. In fact, going back to 2019, I first bought chainlink under $1 in the Easter. That summer proved very fruitful with it hitting a high of around $3 late June when I was in Toulouse, France. When I think of the high times of chainlink, I’ve always been somewhere sunny. Will history repeat itself? We are in July….let’s follow it closely here.
Chainlink
As we are focused on DEFI, lets take a quick look at $LINK (second largest Defi coin after UNI), like BTC and many alts its stuck in a range, between around $17 - $20. Quite a nice 15% range if you like a bit of range trading.
I’d really like to see it reclaim that 20MA on the daily which is beating it down at the moment. You will see I have an alarm there in which case if it confirms a reclaim I would consider a long. I also have a long alert at the bottom of this range.
I am cautious with all alts, trading or accumulating at the moment due to BTC really leading the market in terms of direction, a further blow to BTC could see LINK plummet easily back to a double bottom $15 or potentially lower.
Have that in mind or use tight stops. That said I bet if we were back at $52 and someone asked you what you would give for $17 chainlink I am sure we would all be giving kidneys. So well…. your opportunity is here get those kidneys sold!
Disclaimer: I wont be selling my kidneys. I already have enough in my bags of Chainlink ;)
Chart request - MATIC
Thanks for the chart request, in the group we have a strong fan base for MATIC!
Its not one I’ve looked too closely at. At first glance it does look pretty much like every other chart right now! About 60% down from ATH.
It’s consolidating in a tight range between $1.02 - $1.22 - again a nice 20% range if you like range trading. and since its at the bottom with a tight stop you could easily take your chances on a long here. It does have all the trade marks of a possible bottom here. Just looking at it I would suspect a push up is due.
It does look like it may have broken out and retested, you would be forgiven for taking a fat long position here (I’m tempted actually)
Ideally though, Id like to make sure BTC has calmed down and isnt going to go for another dive, and also I would like to see that 20 MA reclaimed to be safe. It will likley react there and so based on my R/R I am not sure it is worth it here for me by the time it is confirmed. Between the 20 & 50 MA maybe.
If I was looking for a long, I would do so at one of the pink crosses, and wait for a few hourly candle closes above each support level before doing so. Again with the other eye on BTC! Cant stress that enough. If trading alts you should always have alerts on BTC. Also make sure any long fits your R:R. I use minimum 1:2, which means I can lose more than I win and still overall be up. Understanding risk & reward is imperative when planning trades and stops.
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TRADER’S DIARY
Well for start, massive hangovers and bitcoin dumping doesn’t mix well.
Hangovers (or your withdrawal from alcohol, scientifically) cause anxiety and stress. So my 8th July wasn’t the best day. “But CryptoGirl it was a Wednesday?” I hear you cry!….Yeah, I live in England. Its customary to get pretty obliterated when England play football. I’m not sure on the exact reason, maybe its because we usually lose and so we need the drink to cope? Only this time we won and are in the Final - yay! Congratulations to all my English readers!
To be entirely honest, I am actually Welsh, so really I was just jumping on the drinking bandwagon (because I am welsh, no further explanation needed) and thought, well, why not - everyone else in this house in English - bring it on! I’m pretty weak when wine is on offer to be fair.
Enough about the hangover. But it is relevant. I had a fantastic week trading. I reviewed my trading account on Sunday and had increased my trading account by 25%. Was very pleased with that result. I completed 31 trades of which 9 were losses.
Then that fateful Wednesday night following I drank way too much, and I actually don’t remember falling asleep. I did take my eye off the ball somewhat. An,d it wasn’t hugely pleasant to wake up to several longs all hitting stops meaning any gains I had made at the start of the week were wiped. Compound wise I took quite a loss. In hindsight, and 100% if I was sober, as I always do I would have checked in that evening and may well have taken some early profit. Wouldda Shouldda Couldda…..
You wouldn’t get drunk while trying to carry out what I would term a normal job, like say a nurse (that would be dangerous), teacher (terrible influence) or a postman (could be interesting), pilot (definitely fatal) - you catch my drift….
I also felt quite fuzzy headed and sick (ya, you know hungover to the point where you feel like you might actually have heart failure) and I just felt unproductive, more anxious, emotional than usual and just not sharp enough to trade. I’ve since taken a couple of days out. I kinda feel annoyed with myself about that.
So lesson of the week for me, would probably (again) be to give trading the due diligence it deserves and if I know I am going to be off drinking or partying and essentially “offline”, to close all my longs and maybe take a day off the next day and plan for that. I can be, like everyone a little vulnerable to over trading.
I’ve also thought about giving up the sauce altogether, which believe me as a Welsh girl is no mean feat…..maybe get the final out of the way first!! Ill keep you posted!
Create a crypto.com account
So my next recommendation and something I use myself (particularly if you are a true beginner) is crypto.com.
This is probably my favourite app and I use the card for virtually everything. The benefits are crazy and its super simple to use, all done through an app. Their support team is amazing – each time I’ve contacted them its taken just a few minutes to a couple of hours to get back to me and the help area is also really well resourced.
Another great thing is how easy to use it is so it is perfect for beginners to buy and sell cryptocurrencies with ease. Please note though you will often pay market prices and if you want to trade and make multiple buys and sells in a day or week, Binance is the place for that. It’s fine while you get on your feet though.
They also offer a card (one made of actual metal - a conversation starter for sure!) that you can spend with directly from your wallet on absolutely anything that accepts visa and earn cashback. So you can earn cryptocurrencies just by going grocery shopping or booking a holiday! The cashback is pretty decent - 2% if you opt for a ruby card (that’s what I have), and although you have to stake around $300 of CRO (Crypto.coms coin) I made that back in a matter of a few months in cashback alone (and FREE spotify - woo), plus after 6 months your stake is released. I’m on about 2K worth of cashback right now. Not bad for around a year’s use.
On certain cards they offer to pay back your Netflix, Amazon Prime, Spotify & even give cashback on AirBnB and Expedia. Some cards have free access to airport lounges or private jets.
The best bit is you can earn $25 just for joining (use my link and code below) and then an extra $25 for every friend you then refer! It adds up!
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This account is also great for long term holding, as you can earn up to 12% interest just for holding your coins there. This is ON TOP of any extra value the coin appreciates. You do have to ‘lock’ the coins in but this is no different to many other financial investment products and if you intend to hold for a period of 3 months or more then it’s a no-brainer. I have some long terms holds here as part of my strategy to diversify my assets and not hold them all in one wallet (cold or hot) - we will get into that in another newsletter!
Again, please note this isn’t really suitable for trading and using it is fairly self explanatory. For trading I will make some recommendations in my next newsletter.
OK that’s it for this week, I hope you have enjoyed my analysis this week, and remember you can upgrade to the group benefits at any time, where we share daily charts, news, analysis, tutorials and more. Just hit subscribe and upgrade below.
Until next week! and good luck England!
Lois (AKA CryptoGirl)