I’m back!
I cant tell you how GOOOOOOD it is to be back!!
As some of you may know - via my chat group, Trading Camp or other areas where I am active, I took some time off crypto trading. I sent out my newsletter stating I would be pausing your subscriptions on April 14th. By some sort of voodoo magic (or maybe…trading excellence) on that exact day, BTC hit an ATH of $64,854, and since then has been in decline, resting in a range of 31-41k. As of this moment, Bitcoin is trading at a bargain price of $33.4k (please note this may change dramatically by the time I get to the end of this newsletter!)
I took some time off to invest in another business; call it a hedge. I don’t think it’s wise in anything to be 100% complacent and I have always talked about diversification. That includes what you do with your money outside of crypto. Its super cool to be all-in crypto, but probably not very wise. If you were a previous subscriber you will know I was nervous around 55-65k and it was a place I wanted to take profit and diversify. Personally I am feeling pretty smug about taking a large chunk out at the top, but it doesn’t men the rest has not been underwater like anyone else and the worst thing for me is because I created a huge distraction for myself, I lacked the time and concentration to really do an awful lot about it.
Investing in a start up, and being an integral part of that, did take vastly more of my attention and time than I had hoped; I had very little time for crypto. I’d planned on a few weeks out to set up and two and a half months later I am trying to prise myself out of the door. It’s something recently I have had to address and explore with myself a lot in the last weeks, and really think about what my priorities are and where I should give my time. We only have so much, right?
I realised during my time out, leaving some bags on the table and ceasing trading for a while that I did somewhat lose control. Previously, I spent every waking hour trading, charting, networking, talking. Crypto was almost 24/7 for me so I had a really good handle on what was going on. Going from that to a quick glance on my phone between meetings or various goings-on at work didn’t work out for me so well. I think while my timing for coming out partially was epic, it was also a disastrous moment to not have my eye on the ball. It has made me realise that trading and investment and acquiring an income from it, is not a pastime or something that magically happens at weekends if you do not have vast sums of money. I am not going to declare what I do or do not have but I am certainly not a whale, billionaire or even millionaire. Im just a normal, average person from a working / middle class family who taught herself how to trade and generate an income. But that’s the thing, I left my job to go full time crypto. I need an income - trading is a profession and a full time job. If its something I want to do, I’ve realised need to give it the time and dedication it deserves.
I’ve made more money doing this than I ever have in any job, consistently, but ONLY when I am focused. I’m not saying crypto should take up 80 hours a week and you should never sleep, probably a normal 6-8 hour day is sufficient, but if you are serious about it, I honestly am not sure doing it as a hobbie or side project will work out in terms of a reliable revenue stream (who was I kidding?!). If you are doing this as a side project / hobbie, dont be dismayed. Its quite possible to make small amounts on the side with the odd bit of trading. But it would more likley amount to a bit of extra cash, money for a holiday etc. To consistently make an income as an independent trader; that’s hard unless you treat it as a profession.
In summary, I don’t think leaving crypto for a short period was a “mistake” as such, I’ve created something else and put a few eggs in another basket, but it did teach me a few hard lessons as someone relatively new to taking on the role of “full time trader”. So today is the first step back in taking control of my portfolio and life as a crypto trader and I hope you will enjoy taking this journey with me.
What to expect
For this first edition, I am going to give a quick analysis on BTC and some thoughts on alts. Following on from that and each week on a Thursday evening I will in each issue
Weekly round-up & week ahead
Recap the week, and look ahead to the weekend and week ahead in terms of charts and analysis.
Traders diary
My “traders diary” where I will share my successes and failures (we all have those) both in terms of trading results and psychological challenges so that you can learn from my experiences. Its also important to me that all people starting their journey in crypto know that we are all human, and we all make mistakes - the best thing we can do is learn from them.
Extra content
I also hope to include guest content via interviews, content and any new products, projects, ideas or areas within crypto I am exploring.
BTC
Right lets kick this off with a look at Bitcoin.
Lets look at the daily. You dont need to be a rocket scientist to work out we are in a range. We have been here since mid May, with most waiting for a move either way - i.e. above 41k or below 30k
We did touch the boundary at 29k ($28805 to be exact) and we swiftly came back up into the range. Why there you may ask? Well, if you zoom out further on the daily you will see our yearly open figure was $28923. Not a coincidence. It tested that region again through January, building up support, which is why it is now an important support level. The market will always react at areas where there was a previous reaction; that is how we create support and resistance levels.
The worry is losing this vital level, not just as a previous support area but losing yearly open is not cool and certainly bearish. The next level down is 24k and the 2017 ATH $19.8K, both untested. They don’t “have to” be tested but gaps like this can often pull prices back eventually.
However, I’m not bearish yet, and we haven’t lost that level, yet. We are just ranging and until a decision is made, no-one can tell you as an absolute whether we go up or down.
So lets actually see where we are by zooming in a bit.
Bitcoin has actually put in some lovely PA on the daily since 22nd June (I will forever have this day etched in my memory), making higher highs and higher lows. What I think it is doing now, and what we discussed at length in my group was the need for it to put in a higher low.
My green box below is my “buy box” and it hit there this morning. I did at one point yesterday think we may front run it, but usually when I put a box there it does go there eventually. I need to trust my own charting!
It’s been reacting nicely this afternoon. I had a quick chat with one of my members this morning and we were discussing how even if it does go deeper or even shoots through and loses this box eventually, the reaction there confirms what we predicted, and gives confidence to our ideas. All you need to be able to predict is a reaction, not the future.
So the question really is do we hold this area, do we go deeper into the box or do we lose it? Well, as I said we cannot predict the future, so all we can do is watch. My strategy is we bounce here or anywhere down to the bottom of the green box. This idea is based on the market structure on the daily as explained. This becomes invalidated below the red line below, and that would make an equal or lower low and invalidate the idea.
In conclusion I am looking for and my bias is a bounce here or down to 32.2K and then up, so bullish, for now. In the case that we do get that, we have a large and tough band of resistance at 34.6 - 35.6K, which coincidentally is also housing the 20MA on the daily. And this is just the mid point of the channel. My long term target is a bearish retest on the daily, which would take us to that gap at around the mid - high 40K region (45-48K). But we are a long way off that yet, so lets look at that next week and recap on this then see where we end up.
alts
Alts have had a nice run, and held up remarkably well on this recent dip which means there is some confidence coming back into the market. I posted this potential cup & handle on ETH/BTC earlier on Twitter. This is a very reliable and bullish pattern. ETH always leadsthe way on alts, so looking at ETH vs BTC chart will give a good indication of how we should expect alts to perform against BTC.
BTC.D (dominance) also rejected 48 last week and has been on a downward projection since which is probably why we have witnessed some strength. I am quite bullish on alts if BTC can range or edge higher. I think we have all taken note that when BTC loses value losses two folds on alts are a strong possibility so while they may pump twice as hard they also fall twice as hard. High risk / high reward. Have that in mind.
At the moment my exposure to low cap alts is pretty much zero, I have some mid - high caps still in small amounts, but with regards to trading any alts, I ALWAYS have one eye on BTC.
I’ve had a nice run on alts last couple of days, next week we will dive a little more into some past and future trades on more coins.
Questions?
If you have questions regarding my analysis or techniques, or perhaps you need some help & support, consider subscribing to my group. We are a close group of traders, some experienced, some new and we all support each other, share news, projects, tips and advice in a welcoming and sometimes hilarious manner. Seriously, we have a lot of fun!
I also share charts, my trades, daily thoughts and updates, advice and even am on the end of a phone or DM 1-2-1 for any of my members.
We would love to have you along.
That’s a wrap
That’s it for now, I hope you are happy to have me back! I am so pleased to be back! Please share me with your friends, on twitter, and feel free to DM me over twitter if you have any queries about the newsletter or group.
https://twitter.com/cryptogirl_uk
Lastly, next couple of weeks I will be working on a new website where you will be able to download tutorials, book exclusive events or 1-2-1 tutorials with me or members of my group, Ill be sure to keep you all posted.
In the meantime, stay safe and happy trading!
Lois