Keep it under control (take two)
How to focus your mind, stick to your plan and filter the noise. Also usual BTC and alt coin analysis.
So, lets see if this works….
I had intended to re-write this yesterday after the blooper on Tuesday, but everything was pumping extremely hard and moving so fast that it was not the best time to take a look at the markets. Its always easier to see what’s going on when things have calmed down a bit. One of the main themes of the newsletter that never transpired was that most alt coins were looking primed, and I was expecting a great week for Bitcoin and altcoins.
So, now we are mid week, lets see how things are going. Ill look at Bitcoin only briefly because much of what I discussed in the analysis on Tuesday still remains.
Bitcoin
Long term, we can see it is following our (speculative) channel beautifully, putting a short term target at around 70k for the next run up.
The key to there being a next run up is keeping support where we are now. To me this little dip overnight really was just BTC hunting for a higher low and 55.5K is an excellent (perfect) place for it to do this.
In my opinion, if it can keep this support level here it has an excellent shot at that ATH and beyond. This is that pivotal level we all knew it had to break to have a shot at it. The only risk is a double top, so we need to be wary of that. But it would be unusual for there to be no reaction at a previous ATH so I will expect now to see a push to there, hit head, higher low again and then break through. Again, that’s just my leaning. This is very positive, sustainable price action we are seeing.
If you haven’t already read last week’s full newsletter prior to this one please do to give some more context around this analysis, as well as some thoughts on BTC Dominance and altcoins.
Altcoins
We’ve had some great success this week and weekend with our alts, again, Bitcoin provided the perfect setting, consolidating and / or slowly climbing just under ATH is the perfect breeding ground for some mooning. It provides confidence to the market, but Bitcoin doesn’t have the spotlight.
So lets look at some of the coins we looked at last week, how they have performed, and some new opportunities for the week ahead.
$SXP
What a diamond coin this has been! Woo! Last week, we looked at a cup and handle on the daily and a descending triangle on the 4 hour - which also formed part of the handle we were looking for it to break out of. At the time the price was around $2.15 and we were aiming for targets all the way up to $5 - the previous ATH
Since then, it did break out, and the price rocketed to as high as $3.59 - a ROI of 67%. So that’s great news, hope all my subscribers benefited from that, but what about from here?
Lovely break out of the cup & handle as you can see. Very strong price action. Its doing well so far but I would like to see this daily level close ABOVE $3.48, as this was the close and open of two candles on 19th / 20th February where it hit a head and then retraced back down to support at $1.95.
So I am looking for a daily close (not wick) above this yellow line, as this will also mean the weekly level is holding. Next step would be to then head for that target at $3.78 but that will be a tough one as prior to this peak, it had not seen $3 since August last year. I would expect a reaction here.
Zooming in, on the four hour, we can see where it is creating a nice path of highs and lows and is testing each S/R (support & resistance) level as it goes. It will probably test support at $3.42 now - this is a key level because its a weekly level as mentioned above.
I think with some patience, $5 and more will not be far away, BUT it has been doing some pretty hardcore pumping so a retrace now would not be unusual or un-healthy. There is quite a gap now between the current price and MA / EMAs on 4 hour and daily which suggest maybe a pullback is due. I think we will just have to take this one level by level.
$OCEAN
Last week, I mentioned $OCEAN, and that I was holding out for at least a dollar. Well, it certainly did that. Smashed all my targets and reached a high of $1.68 - that’s an 86% return from when I brought it to the attention of our group in the chart channel.
Lets have a quick look at what it is doing now. Much like I was saying about $SXP, after a big run like this, its only natural it comes back down for a re-fuel. Its doing so right now on a support level $1.34-$1.39 - $1.39 being the previous high we saw mid feb.
If we look at the 4 hour, we can see a very similar pattern playing out that played out on the previous peak mid-feb. I think it will either bounce here and breakout of the triangle formation or continue in a downward channel perhaps to the trendline again before resuming its upwards journey. I’m pretty positive on alts at the moment so I’m erring towards a break up pretty soon.
On the 4 hour its being kept up between the 20 and 50 MA, and on the daily, its sitting right at the top of that trendline. So the yellow scenario would certainly be very neat and there is a lot of confluence there for this to play out. Long term I am very bullish on OCEAN.
$AVAX
So last week we looked at a possible breakout of a descending triangle. AVAX has been on a painful slow decline for almost a month now.
Well, patience is a virtue and it pretty much did what we were hoping for. The token release also seems to have had the opposite effect with the pump actually being instigated on the 9th March. I have no explanation for this but if anyone does I am all ears!
Its now hit that really important S/R level (expected) and is trying to push through, with a tough area like this first time was unlikely to be successful.
The 20 MA on the 4 hour is holding this up and its had a fair few tests now of the $24-$22 support level so I see no reason for a retrace right now.
What I am looking for now if for it to reclaim this level. If it does I will be expecting some fireworks and it would make for a great long in the right wider market conditions all the way up to previous ATH.
$AAVE
Last week we discussed $AAVE being a nice long from above the $406 support level up to higher daily targets.
At the moment it does seem to be holding this level and has made some nice higher lows and highs on the 4 hours, but it has not reached our first target yet.
I am still eyeing higher for this but this level is crucial. If we look at the daily, it is looking very positive, nice green candle so far holding that support and bring propped up by the 20MA. As long as it holds this support level I think we are still good and should remain patient.
$DOT
Well, this is dull. But at least there is not a lot to say about it that is bearish, right now. Its slowly and reliably climbing up that channel. It did print a higher high on the daily above that $38.71 resistance but rejected again. Its since printed a nice higher low (so far) so now we need it to push through that daily
I wouldn’t long this, its looking OK and chances are long term it will see the light of $42 again but I think there is a risk of a double top here.
Daily looks OK, may even be a semblance of a W pattern….but a third red candle and another touch at the bottom of that trendline at $35 wouldn’t be out of the question for me right now.
OK lets take a look at a couple of extra alts we didn’t look at last week.
$BAT
A cryptogirl fave - We’ve mentioned it a few times here - and how far it has come - almost at ATH! Its been very strong over the past weeks, providing long after long after long. Most enjoyable - I know some of our members have been making some epic ROI.
Look at this chart. Its a thing of beauty!
OK so if you are new to BAT, would I long now? Probably not - (possibly missed the BAT train) - the ideal buy, as we discussed was upon confirmation of $0.49. Don’t get me wrong I am keeping hold of my BAT because I like the project. It was one of the first coins in my portfolio that I bought for less than $0.10, I sold in the summer at around $0.40 (at the time a lot of alts were peaking) and then re-entered recently thanks to a shout by one of our members that it had passed that key level.
You might be able to squeeze something out of a pump from $0.83 to $0.90 (not bad) but other than that we are probably off to price discovery which unless you use fib is hard to speculate.
$UTK
Why is no-one talking about this coin? I’ve been yabbering on about this in my group since it was around 10c, and its now 480% up from there, a mere 3 months later.
Utrust, as it is otherwise known, aims to bring crypto into the mainstream by offering services to online stores and enabling them to accept crypto as a form of payment, and at the same time enabling buyers to use it. And with a a former Paypal & Ebay Sanja Con at the helm, It has much promise.
With the rise in popularity of crypto, and increasing demand from people to use and accept it as a form of payment, Utrust is certain to continue expanding. It has raised atound €17.6 million in funding rounds; the last one from March 2020 via pre-seed round. To find out more about $UTK visit https://utrust.com/about/
$LINK
I got quite excited about LINK this week, it broke out of a traingle I was watching and its following a nice trendline but like $DOT its painfully slow when we are seeing 60-80% returns in a matter of days elsewhere. Personally though I think we are getting greedy.
Chainlink, as well at BTC & ETH remains one of the best, low risk investments in crypto. I have no doubt that it will run, but it tends to do it on its own accord, quite out of the blue usually. So maybe now is not the time. It will have its turn though. Its my 3rd largest hold and I aint letting go!
You can see where it broke out earlier in the week. But if failed to really dominate that $32 level. I actually stayed up a few extra hours convinced that it was about to blow, and alas it failed. It even lost a daily level and if it loses this trend line as well we could well see that $27 area being tested.
But, lets get some hopium…
Chainlink traditionally does hold trendlines quite well, and for now, it is bouncing. It is also being held up by the daily 20MA.
And, its printing consistent, steady, higher lows and higher highs. I would probably not trade it right now, here, but I’m confident as a HODLER and I can be patient for Chainlink.
It’s been a great few days for alts and I think there is definitely lots more to come in the coming weeks.
Keeping it under control.
I’m a fine one to talk, by the way, but we are going to discuss it anyway.
I just wanted to fill you all in on some work I did this weekend. I’ve mentioned a number of times that I spent A LOT of time, last year researching coins and planning my long term portfolio.
I have also said how I prefer to have a smaller portfolio of coins because it is near impossible to keep up to date, monitor and chart dozens of coins at a time. I tend to chart or trade my large and medium caps. The smaller ones I just invest and leave alone. I feel like recently I have become distracted and have started to pick up other coins, which has meant that each investment that was originally part of the plan has become diluted % wise and now I have too many coins to track and chart.
One of the things I preach a lot about is sticking to a plan, and I do feel somewhat like I have gone off course. Its very difficult when people are saying "This is the next big pump" or "This is the next x100"...there are SO MANY new exciting projects coming into crypto, it will happen EVERY DAY. I hate being distracted by things like that, or worrying about missing out, because then it becomes emotional, confusing, poorly planned and its not the right mindset to have AT ALL. So this weekend I gave myself a good talking to - Lets just stop with the overwhelmed feelings and get back on the path.
The truth is I was very happy with the portfolio of coins I selected for 2020 / 2021 and I wanted to reign myself back in, re-focus and stop being distracted by the noise. There is always new opportunity, every day, and we CAN STILL trade, if we want to every day - muck around in quick longs as much as you want. But my long term portfolio, in my opinion must be more rigid, moving in and out, selling some of one coin to invest in another etc, I just don't feel like that is part or ever was part of my personal plan and I don’t have an endless amount of normal money to keep ploughing in.
My plan for my long term portfolio was that - LONG TERM and I am fully confident they will bring me adequate returns - they already have - I've been buying these over the last 3 years. I would also add that my personal investment and trading style is quite conservative in the realm of crypto (not in the real world) and so the coins I have selected are not comparatively high risk. The smaller caps, yes, but they were mostly less than 1% investment at the time of purchase (some have come a log way since then)!
I would encourage you to share new projects, I like to hear about them too and I will post them here and in the group for anyone who is not yet done investing and wants to find that new opportunity.
But there wont just be new opportunity today, tomorrow, this year. There will be opportunity again for buying in 2022, 2023 - maybe even better opportunity if we get a bear cycle. Maybe we get a dip this summer - who knows. Coins are pumping HARD right now, everything is rallying. I'm not saying don't invest now, but personally I don't want to get trapped into FOMO or chasing pumps or shitcoins that are very high risk in a panic. I cant possibly know everything or be in every coin, and I am OK with that. It becomes too much. For me it is about planning, organisation, focus, execution - being economical with my time and also managing the time I am at a screen - there are other things to life than crypto.
I want to focus on these coins what I planned out for this cycle and see it through to fruition without becoming stressed about missing the next big thing. If you are a good trader and investor, there is always opportunity.
So, I will update on the drive asap but here are my revised holds - Large means I have a higher % or my portfolio in this coins, small means the % is low):
Large holdings (Low risk, large cap):
BTC
LINK
ETH
LTC
Medium Holdings (Medium risk, Mid cap)
NEXO
AAVE
AVAX
BAT
DOT
EGLD
GRT
OCEAN
REN
RSR
SXP
UNI
UTK
L2
Small holdings (high risk)
VRX
ALBT
AGI
UOS
APE
QNT
SNTVT
DEC
FNX
GHST
NBT
UNIDX
That's 30 coins, I still feel that is a bit much, but each of them have a reason to be there, for me. Of these I will only chart and trade the large and mid caps but for the moment I am mostly holding.
I’ve also heard a lot from newbies or traders feeling anxiety around not “knowing” enough, wanting to desperately absorb as much knowledge as possible and getting in a muddle. I have already given this advice to my group, in these newsletters and via my tutorials. You ONLY NEED 2-3 indicators or tools. There are hundreds available. You cannot learn them all, especially not now, and even if you did, you couldn’t possibly put them all into practice because it would take you a whole day to chart one coin, and there would be so many lines everywhere I doubt you would be able to see the woods for the trees. So research some tolls, play around, pick some you like, find out of they work for you or not, keep the ones that do, ignore the ones you dont get along so well with,
Trading is subjective, like any art, sport, method, strategy - everyone has their own way of doing things and tools mostly lend themselves to people personally - what you find easy to use, what you respond well to, and what brings you, personally, the results you desire in the time you have. I have found mine and I have shared them.
CryptoGirl tools:
Support & resistance levels which I prefer to draw manually
MA / EMA levels
I read candles and I like to look for patterns or follow trend lines
In support, I sometimes look at RSI and volume and bollinger bands (not often) and I analyse sentiment & fundamentals from friends, twitter and the news.
That’s it. There is nothing more I do. It works for me and provides me with enough income and investment opportunity. The only other tool I do want to learn is Fib.
It can be intimidating seeing all the various tools and complicated systems being used by other traders and CT people, that can make you feel inadequate or that you are not “expert enough”
Honestly I couldn’t give two poops about all the various indicators or complicated systems used by other traders - maybe they have more time, maybe they trade on 5min charts or are position traders?
But it can be overwhelming - focus 100% on how you roll and take your time with it - sure look at and learn new tools but don’t put yourself under pressure or be a jack of all trades and a master of none. Do you think a sprinter needs to master a javelin? Nope….(unless you are a pentathlete - bad analogy??) - you catch my drift.
skip to the end….
OK so enough blabbering on, please do continue to share your charts, investment ideas and so on with the group. Its great that we have the benefit of many eyes on the prize. And as I said, trading and investing is unique to you. Robbi this week picked up a coin from another group member - CHILLIZ. Its based around sport so not really my bag but Robbi is a big footy fan so he can see the potential, and without our community he would have never known about it.
So please, continue to share.
I will leave you with this quote which I really like, and I think sums up my thoughts for this week,
Take care, wishing you all a lovely week of retruns.
Lois AKA, CryptoGirl xxx